中國冶金報社
記者 樊三彩 報道
圖為尼庫尼·圖拉克西亞接受《中國冶金報》記者獨家專訪 （舒禮煥/攝)
“美國大面積加征關(guān)稅非常不合理，這對美國經(jīng)濟會造成很大創(chuàng)傷。從全球來看，沒有任何一個國家可以完全獨立于其他國家，相信美國最終會意識到這一點并做出調(diào)整。”4月21日，印度鋼鐵應(yīng)用商協(xié)會會長Nikunj Turakhia（尼庫尼·圖拉克西亞）在接受《中國冶金報》記者獨家專訪時強調(diào)，“目前只需靜觀其變，時間會證明很多東西。”
“希望中國鋼企深度融入印度的發(fā)展”
世界鋼協(xié)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2024年，中國粗鋼產(chǎn)量10.05億噸，同比下降1.7%；印度粗鋼產(chǎn)量1.49億噸，同比增長6.3%，分列全球產(chǎn)鋼國第一、二位。
尼庫尼·圖拉克西亞認為，世界第一、第二兩大國之間開展合作很有必要，也順理成章。“當前，印度鋼鐵工業(yè)發(fā)展水平與中國鋼鐵存在較大差距，需要在產(chǎn)品技術(shù)、成本節(jié)約、生產(chǎn)效率等多方面向中國學習，也希望中國鋼鐵企業(yè)能深度融入到印度的發(fā)展中來。”他說。
據(jù)介紹，2024-2025財年（2024年4月1日到2025年3月31日?），印度GDP總量達到3.89萬億美元，同比增長6.7%，相較于2013-2014財年的1.86萬億美元，已實現(xiàn)翻番。目前，印度政府提出5萬億美元GDP發(fā)展目標，并通過制定數(shù)字印度計劃、“印度制造”計劃等系列舉措，正加速實現(xiàn)這一目標。特別是在鐵路基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)投資方面，印度2024-2025財年已經(jīng)達到320億美元，相較于2014年（36.1億美元）增長近8倍。印度經(jīng)濟未來有很好的增長預(yù)期。
“希望中國鋼鐵企業(yè)積極參與印度的發(fā)展，多開展一些除鋼鐵貿(mào)易以外的合作。”他特別強調(diào)并建議，“可以在印度建設(shè)海外倉、建工廠、投資高端制造業(yè)等，進行更多元的深度合作，也可以將一部分產(chǎn)能轉(zhuǎn)移至印度，這也是規(guī)避關(guān)稅風險的好辦法?！彼f道。
在他看來，中國鋼鐵企業(yè)當前更多是“站在門外”進行風險和可行性評估。而日韓與印度簽署有自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定，享受著免稅準入，因此在印度開展了更多投資。
“歐盟碳關(guān)稅未來必定會延期”
“雖然印度也進行了一些嘗試，但生產(chǎn)綠鋼沒有那么容易，并且征收碳關(guān)稅將把每個國家的生產(chǎn)成本進一步增加50美元/噸~100美元/噸，沒有任何一個國家真正準備好如何應(yīng)對。”尼庫尼·圖拉克西亞表示。
國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）4月22日發(fā)布最新一期《世界經(jīng)濟展望報告》，將全球經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)期從3.3%大幅下調(diào)至2.8%，主因是美國單邊加征關(guān)稅引發(fā)貿(mào)易政策不確定性加劇。尼庫尼·圖拉克西亞強調(diào)，當前，全球經(jīng)濟形勢復雜嚴峻，鋼鐵行業(yè)也面臨需求下滑的困境，這一現(xiàn)狀并不會很快改善，通過碳關(guān)稅為行業(yè)發(fā)展增加難度的做法并不可取?！皻W盟碳關(guān)稅未來必定會延期，因此不必對此有太多擔心?！彼V定道。
印度政府在2017年5月份發(fā)布的擴大鋼鐵產(chǎn)能的遠景規(guī)劃《國家鋼鐵政策(2017)》顯示，到2030-2031財年，印度計劃將粗鋼產(chǎn)能擴大至3億噸。近日，印度鋼鐵部秘書桑迪普·龐德里克（Sandeep Poundrik）表示，印度有信心達成3億噸產(chǎn)能目標，因為預(yù)計消費量將快速增長。公開數(shù)據(jù)顯示，印度2021-2023年的鋼鐵產(chǎn)量增速穩(wěn)居世界前列。面對快速增長的鋼鐵產(chǎn)量與低碳轉(zhuǎn)型的壓力，印度鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)將如何平衡？
尼庫尼·圖拉克西亞直言：“我們不會刻意去做平衡，依然會優(yōu)先保證生產(chǎn)，滿足經(jīng)濟發(fā)展需求。”在他看來，歐洲國家在發(fā)展時期也進行了大量碳排放，但現(xiàn)在要求其他發(fā)展中國家縮減碳排放，這是極為不公平的。同時，在經(jīng)濟繁榮的時候，“碳”話題被更多地提及，而這兩年經(jīng)濟并不好，國際上談?wù)摰膹姸日跍p弱，這是一個動態(tài)的過程。
“3億噸產(chǎn)能計劃并不是根本目的，主要視印度經(jīng)濟發(fā)展狀況和國內(nèi)需求情況而定。”他補充道。
—— 英文版 ——
Nikunj Turakhia, President of the Steel Users Federation Of India：
The US' imposition of tariffs will "hurt itself", and we just need to wait and see.
"Large-scale tariff hikes by the United States are highly unreasonable and will cause significant damage to its own economy. From a global perspective, no country can be completely independent of others. I believe the United States will eventually realize this and make adjustments." On April 21, Nikunj Turakhia, president of the Indian Steel Application Association, emphasized in an exclusive interview with China Metallurgical News, "At present, we just need to wait and see. Time will prove many things."
"Hope Chinese steel enterprises deeply integrate into India's development"
According to the World Steel Association's statistics, in 2024, China's crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%; India's crude steel output was 149 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, ranking first and second globally respectively.
Nikunj Turakhia believes that cooperation between the world's top two steel producers is necessary and logical. "Currently, there is a significant gap between India's steel industry development level and that of China. India needs to learn from China in many aspects such as product technology, cost savings, and production efficiency. We also hope that Chinese steel enterprises can deeply integrate into India's development," he said.
It is reported that in the fiscal year 2024-2025 (April 1, 2024 to March 31, 2025), India's GDP reached 3.89 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. Compared with 1.86 trillion US dollars in the fiscal year 2013-2014, it has doubled. Currently, the Indian government has set a GDP target of 5 trillion US dollars and is accelerating the realization of this goal through a series of measures such as the Digital India initiative and the "Make in India" program. Especially in terms of railway infrastructure investment, it has reached 32 billion US dollars in the fiscal year 2024-2025, an increase of nearly eight times compared to 3.61 billion US dollars in 2014. India's economy has a good growth outlook in the future.
"Hope Chinese steel enterprises participate in India's development and carry out more cooperation beyond steel trade," he emphasized. "It is suggested that they can build overseas warehouses, set up factories, invest in high-end manufacturing, etc., to carry out more diversified and in-depth cooperation. They can also transfer part of their production capacity to India, which is also a good way to avoid tariff risks," he said.
In his view, Chinese steel enterprises are currently more "standing outside" to assess risks and feasibility. While Japan and South Korea have signed free trade agreements with India and enjoy duty-free access, they have carried out more investments in India.
"The EU carbon tariff will definitely be extended in the future"
"Although India has made some attempts, it is not that easy to produce green steel. Moreover, the imposition of carbon tariffs will increase production costs by about 50 to 100 US dollars per ton for every country. No country is truly prepared for how to deal with this." he added.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest World Economic Outlook report on April 22, significantly lowering the global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%, mainly due to the uncertainty in trade policies caused by the unilateral tariffs imposed by the United States. Nikunj Turakhia emphasized that the current global economic situation is complex and severe, and the steel industry is also facing the predicament of declining demand. This situation will not improve quickly, and it is not advisable to increase the difficulty for the industry's development through carbon tariffs. "The EU carbon tariff will definitely be extended in the future, so there is no need to worry too much about it," he said confidently.
The Indian government's long-term plan for expanding steel production, the National Steel Policy (2017), released in May 2017, aims to increase crude steel production capacity to 300 million tons by the fiscal year 2030-2031. Recently, Sandeep Poundrik, the secretary of the Indian Ministry of Steel, stated that India is confident of achieving the 300 million tons capacity target because it is expected that consumption will grow rapidly. Public data shows that India's steel production growth rate has been among the world's top in 2021-2023. Facing the rapid growth of steel production and the pressure of low-carbon transformation, how will the Indian steel industry balance these factors?
Nikunj Turakhia said straightforwardly, "We will not deliberately try to balance. We will still prioritize production to meet the demands of economic development." In his view, European countries also emitted a large amount of carbon during their development periods, but now asking other developing countries to reduce carbon emissions is extremely unfair. At the same time, the "carbon" topic is more frequently discussed during economic prosperity, but in the past two years when the economy has not been good, the intensity of international discussions has weakened. This is a dynamic process.
"The 300 million tons capacity plan is not the ultimate goal. It mainly depends on India's economic development situation and domestic demand," he added.
